Bucks vs. Pacers Game 4 prediction, odds, pick for 4/28: There's value on this team total

Bucks vs. Pacers Odds

Sunday, April 28, 7 p.m. ET, TNT

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Bucks will likely need another massive performance from Middleton in Game 4 considering they could be without Damian Lillard, who reaggravated an Achilles injury in the closing seconds of regulation.

Lillard and Middleton scored 70 of the Bucks' 118 points, so Milwaukee can ill afford to lose another star player. Giannis Antetokounmpo's status is still up in the air with his calf injury.

We're already seeing the impact of the Bucks' injury news, as the Pacers are as high as 9.5-point favorites after opening at -5.5.

Given the uncertainty and all the potential moving parts regarding the Bucks, we might need to get a bit creative when trying to find some value in this matchup. Let's take a look in our Bucks vs. Pacers Game 4 preview below.

Milwaukee Bucks

This series looked very promising on paper, but unfortunately, we're left to read between the tea leaves on the injury front instead of focusing on breaking down the matchup. It feels like whenever there's a new report, it somehow contradicts the information we previously had.

In the postgame press conference following Milwaukee's loss, Lillard said he planned to play in Game 4.

A day later, Lillard is in a walking boot, and Bucks head coach Doc Rivers doesn't seem too confident about the status of his point guard.

"We don't know yet," Rivers said of Lillard's availability. "Not looking great, but we don't know yet."

Lillard did undergo an MRI, and the results could determine whether he will play Sunday.

As for Antetokounmpo's status, Rivers straddled the fence even more by saying the two-time MVP would work out Sunday before the team makes a final decision. It's worth noting that while Antetokounmpo has yet to fully train with the team, Rivers doesn't necessarily view a live practice as a prerequisite for the power forward to play.

But when pressed further about whether he envisioned Antetokounmpo playing, Rivers provided a more pessimistic response.

"I doubt it," Rivers said. "But we'll see."

Either the Milwaukee head coach is a terrible poker player, or he's fooling us all. Since the Bucks never provided any concrete details about the extent of Antetokounmpo's calf strain, we can only speculate at this point.

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Indiana Pacers

The Pacers' injury report offers much more clarity, as Bennedict Mathurin remains the only player listed since being ruled out for the season with a torn labrum in his right shoulder. Despite Mathurin being a very talented player who averaged 14.5 points per game, the Pacers are deep enough to overcome his absence.

Indiana led the regular season in bench points with 46.8 per game. While the Pacers' bench is down to fifth in scoring (23.3) during the postseason, they're also playing roughly seven fewer minutes (12.1).

However, the Bucks' bench is averaging 12.9 minutes during the playoffs but only 14.7 points.

Given the Pacers' bench production, there's not much of a dropoff when their starters are out of the game to get some rest. Indiana continues to play with its same style of zipping the ball around the perimeter and looking for open shots.

One of the more refreshing things about the Pacers is that everything they do on offense has a purpose. The ball rarely gets stuck on one side of the court; it's often one or two dribbles and the basketball is on the move again.

Although the Pacers lost the series opener 109-94, they managed to play the game their pace. They just simply shot poorly from the floor.

We know Indiana is a team that likes to get up and down the floor, as NBA.com ranked the Pacers second in tempo during the regular season with 102.16 possessions per 48 minutes. And while it's normal for the pace to be slower during the playoffs, 97 possessions in Game 1 is still pretty fast. In Game 2, there were 92.5 possessions, followed by 89.2 in Game 3.

The difference is Indiana posted an offensive rating of at least 123.5 in each of the last two games.

Bucks vs. Pacers

Betting Pick & Prediction

Rivers has often talked about wanting his team to "play in the mud." What he means is that he wants to turn the game into a dog fight and muck it up as much as possible. However, to do that, you have to be able to get stops defensively, and perhaps more importantly, you have to be able to control the glass.

Milwaukee has struggled in both categories and has been out-rebounded (145-130) in all three games during this series. Antetokounmpo would certainly help to plug both holes, which is why his absence thus far in this series has been a massive loss.

As a result, I expect the Pacers to continue to the control the pace of the game given their rebounding edge.

The Bucks are still a prideful team so I wouldn't be so quick to count them out just yet. We already saw them put together a spirited comeback in Game 3, while the Pacers showed some of their youthful inexperience in not being able to close the game out.

Therefore, I prefer to pass on taking either side in this contest and instead target the Pacers first half team total to go over 58.5 points.

When you combine the Pacers' offensive efficiency with their ability to control tempo by dominating the glass, they should be able to put up a big number in the first half.

Pick: Pacers 1H Team Total Over 58.5 (-102 at FanDuel)